Hedging Risks in a PV-Heavy Market: Data-Driven Solutions to Forecast Grid Imbalance

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Recording of Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | The smarter E Europe Conferences 2026 | Language: English | Duration: 9:21 .

Data-Driven Solutions for Grid Imbalance in Renewable Energy Markets

Data-driven solutions are crucial for forecasting grid imbalances in photovoltaic (PV)-heavy markets, where inaccuracies in consumption and production forecasts can incur significant costs for Transmission System Operators (TSOs). Balancing costs can reach hundreds of millions of euros annually across Europe, with projections indicating specific TSOs could exceed 100 million euros by mid-2025. In Switzerland, a trend shows increasing imbalance correlating with the PV generation curve. Local balancing groups are keen to reduce imbalance penalties, necessitating continuous communication to address their specific needs. Advanced forecasting models have been developed to predict the signs and magnitudes of imbalances, enabling better decision-making and operational efficiency. These models forecast imbalance signs for the next 15 minutes and magnitudes for up to two hours, utilizing historical data and improving accuracy over traditional methods. Predictive models also support financial savings, with advanced techniques potentially saving PV plants substantially more than standard methods. As renewable energy reliance increases, accurate forecasting becomes ever more crucial for managing costs and improving service quality.

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Speaker

Diya Achi
R&D Data Scientist
CSEM SA
Switzerland

Grid operators are no longer asking whether AI belongs in control rooms, but when they will be able to rely on it. AI tools for forecasting imbalances, detecting congestion, supporting dispatch decisions as well as enabling digital twins and edge intelligence are advancing rapidly. At the same time, European frameworks are evolving to support data-driven grid operation.But trust is not built on model accuracy alone - it requires real-world deployment, transparent validation and clear human oversight.During this 90-minute session, speakers will share concrete results from deployed systems. Find out where AI-assisted operation has delivered measurable improvements, what data infrastructure is genuinely needed and what regulatory conditions can help a tool move from the pilot phase to one that becomes part of daily operations.

Further Talks of this session:

Speaker

Christiane Mann
Chair of the T&D Europe Working Group on Grid Digitalisation
T&D Europe
Belgium

To Talk

Speaker

Steve Merrick
Staff Product Manager
Wärtsilä Energy Storage
USA

To Talk

Speaker

Smaran Subbaiah
AI Product Manager
Siemens AG
Germany

To Talk

Speaker

Christoph Scharfenort
Manager Sales & Business Development DACH
VT Electron (ADI)
Ireland

To Talk

To Talk

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