Recording of Tuesday, May 06, 2025 | The smarter E Europe 2025 | Conference Program | Language: English | Duration: 15:45 .

European Solar Market Confronts Revenue Cannibalization and Declining Capture Rates Amidst Capacity Expansion, Says Rystad Energy Expert

Vegard Vollset from Rystad Energy highlights the complexity of Europe's solar market, emphasizing its interconnectedness with other energy sectors like LNG markets that affect power prices. Understanding this ecosystem involves analyzing everything from energy harvesting to consumption across industries. Europe’s diverse power landscape includes over 100,000 projects in more than 30 national contexts, each with unique decarbonization strategies despite shared EU goals. Solar has been growing rapidly—about 70 gigawatts annually—but growth rates have recently slowed even as capacity and generation output increase significantly beyond just EU member states. Countries such as Germany and France report a 30% rise in solar generation while the UK sees a 42% increase. However, declining revenue capture rates pose challenges due to market dynamics; these reflect how much renewable producers earn relative to spot market prices and are dropping for both wind and solar across Europe due to increased penetration driving down electricity prices until at least 2030. Opportunities arise amidst increasing volatility which could benefit storage solutions or flexibility measures. Although annual installation increases may slow, renewables will likely dominate by around 2032 through utility-scale projects supported by subsidies/auctions becoming major contributors within Europe's power mix necessitating strategic industry adjustments amid evolving supply-demand imbalances.

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Speaker

Vegard Vollset
Head of Renewables & Power - EMEA
Rystad Energy
Norway

Talk of session: Major European Markets: What's Needed to Create the Next Solar Momentum in Europe

Across the EU, solar power surpassed coal in electricity generation for the first time last year. At the same time, however, solar growth has slowed significantly since the energy crisis, with five of the top ten markets installing less than the year before, and the overall expansion rate dropping to single digits. With increasing policy uncertainty in many countries, the success of solar in the EU depends on a strong vision of the new leadership in Brussels to create a stable, investment-friendly environment that ensures long-term momentum. This session will provide: Market projections for EU solar growth and key trends Supply, demand and price analysis Insights from major national solar associations on market opportunities and barriers Discussion on how to reignite growth and meet EU targets.

Further Talks of this session:

Welcome & Introduction

Speaker

Josefin Berg
Associate Director
S&P Global

To Talk

How to Navigate the New Era of Solar Distributed DG

Speaker

Miguel Lopes
Senior Asset Leader
McKinsey & Company
United States of America

Recording of presentation not authorized for publication.

European Markets - The Effects of Supply and Demand Imbalance

Speaker

Molly Morgan
Senior Research Analyst
Exawatt
United Kingdom

To Talk

Panel Discussion

Speaker

To Talk